Indian stock markets may wilt under US reciprocal tariff weight
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Mumbai: Indian markets could open up to 1% lower on Tuesday after the Eid holiday, suggests weekly options data, as bears are likely to return ahead of US President Donald Trump’s 2 April deadline for reciprocal tariffs. Trump's comments on the weekend dragged South Korea's Kospi and Japan's Nikkei down by 3-4% on Monday, while Germany's Dax and France's CAC traded 1% lower at the time of writing.
Indian stock markets are likely to feel the pain on Tuesday, said analysts. Options data as of Friday indicates a range of close to 500 points from Friday's closing level of 23,519. The key support priced in by option traders was 23,263, with the resistance at 23,737.
A decisive break below 23,263 could result in the markets testing the 23.6% retracement level of 22,982, which squares with the weekly options' significant outstanding position build-up at the 23,000 put level. Retracement refers to the market making up some of the losses by bouncing off the lows. As it rises, it encounters resistance at crucial levels.
Also read | Trump turns his back on the markets. It could break MAGA. Nifty has fallen from a record high of 26,277.35 on 27 September to a low of 21,964.6 on 4 March, a fall of 4,313 points. From there through Friday's close of 23519.35, it has clawed back 1555 points.
“Volatility could increase if markets fall below 23,200 in the short term as a fallout from reciprocal tariffs," said Sahaj Agrawal, head of derivatives research (private client group) at Kotak Securities. US investment bank Goldman Sachs on Sunday raised the probability of a US recession to 35% from 20% earlier over the next 12 months because of tariff-induced economic pain. Indian markets posted their first
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