Dollar sideways, yen under watch ahead of key CPI release
The main market focus on Wednesday is U.S. consumer price inflation for March, which traders have been eagerly awaiting for hints on the Fed's policy outlook.
The inflation data follows a strong jobs report last Friday that blew past forecasts, stirring more questions on how soon and how much the central bank will cut rates this year.
Futures traders reduced bets to the lowest level since October, around 60 basis points in rate cuts this year, LSEG data showed on Monday, amid evidence of continued strength in the U.S. economy.
Ahead of the data, U.S. interest rate futures set the odds of the first cut occurring in June at about 60%, up from 51% on Monday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, although the possibility of a hold has bumped up to 40%.
A solid CPI number will likely have markets pricing out a June cut, which could see the dollar rising sharply, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
«A strong core CPI of 0.3% (month-to-month) or above will likely break the case for a June rate cut because there are two more CPI readings ahead of the meeting which are likely not sufficient to show a pattern of slowing inflation.»
On the other hand, even if the data comes in below expectations, June bets will probably remain little changed as hurdles remain, meaning the dollar may only dip modestly, she said.
«The U.S. CPI will be a big test for Japanese authorities,» Kong added.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six rivals, held firm at 104.10.
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