Donald Trump’s Odds Surge Ahead of Kamala Harris on Polymarket, Prompting Manipulation Concerns

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Donald Trump’s odds of defeating Kamala Harris surged on Polymarket this week, raising concerns about potential market manipulation just weeks ahead of the U.S. presidential election.

Trump, the Republican nominee, currently holds a substantial lead over the vice president on the decentralized prediction platform, sparking debates about the integrity of these betting markets.

According to Polymarket’s official “Presidential Election Winner 2024” poll, bettors favor Trump over Harris with 62.1 percent to 37.9 percent.

This dramatic shift in odds has raised eyebrows as it coincides with a significant bet from one user.

Polymarket’s real-time odds are starting to price in a Trump win, which could explain the recent rally in stocks and crypto. Markets are reacting—who do you think takes it? pic.twitter.com/I3yy8cXRg8

A bettor known as Fredi9999 reportedly placed a massive $20 million wager on Trump, which has skewed the market and raised concerns about the validity of Polymarket’s odds.

In contrast, national polls paint a much closer picture of the race, with Harris leading Trump 48.5 percent to 46.2 percent, respectively.

The controversy surrounding political prediction markets has intensified as Election Day approaches.

Billionaire and X CEO Elon Musk recently claimed, albeit falsely, that such platforms are “more accurate than polls” because “actual money” is involved.

However, critics argue that large sums of money can distort the results.

Several U.S. lawmakers have voiced their opposition to political betting platforms.

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