East coast gas supply rising but ACCC cautions over thin surplus
The eastern states will have only a small surplus of gas in early 2024 if all uncontracted LNG is exported to the spot market, according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, in a finding that reduces the spare volumes from its assessment in June.
Though the federal government pointed to an improved outlook for east coast gas in the first quarter of 2024, with no domestic shortages and higher exports, the ACCC remained cautious.
Domestic gas users should not go short in early 2024 even if all uncontracted LNG is shipped offshore.
“While the overall outlook is positive, there remains risk that the outlook could worsen, particularly from higher-than-expected gas demand,” the watchdog said in an update to a report in June that underscores the tight balance between supply and demand.
It said that if the three LNG producers in Gladstone exported all their gas, supplies would need to be piped in from other states or withdrawn from storage to meet total Queensland demand.
The report, to be released on Wednesday, puts the east coast’s likely surplus of gas at 1.4 petajoules in the first quarter of 2024, if all uncontracted LNG is exported. That compares with a surplus forecast three months ago of 7.2PJ.
However, supply will be 5.9PJ higher than forecast in June, and 13 per cent up on the first quarter of 2023. Export demand is expected to be 8.2PJ higher than forecast in June and 9 per cent higher than in the March quarter this year, yielding an extra $2 billion for producers, according to government figures.
“This latest advice from the ACCC shows the gas outlook for 2024 is improving thanks to the sustained effort of government and industry to ensure there is sufficient gas supply at reasonable prices to meet
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