Economic Survey 2024: Jobs key to unlocking demographic dividend
jobs is a key takeaway from the Economic Survey; another highlight is the conservative approach to growth expectations.
Union Budget 2024 Live Updates
A Measured Advice from the Survey
Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL
The Economic Survey's expectation of GDP growth decelerating to 6.5-7% in fiscal 2025 is based on the right reasons. The forecast is in alignment with CRISIL's own projection of 6.8% growth and acknowledges the resilience of the economy in the first quarter, as reflected in the strong print of the PMI and solid tax collections.
We, however, maintain our forecast because of anticipated pressures from high interest rates and reducing pent-up demand. Then there are heightened global risks that create a downward bias to the forecasts.
Given the uncertain environment, we consider it prudent for the Budget to sustain ongoing support to infrastructure buildout, while creating an enabling environment and spurring private investment in strategic and employment generating sectors.
Food inflation has been another major challenge.
How much will the Budget reflect the measured advice of the survey? We are about to find out.
GDP Growth Expectations are Realistic
Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA
While the Economic Survey has pegged GDP growth for FY25 at 6.5-7%, which is conservative per market estimates, we believe these projections are quite realistic (ICRA est: 6.8%) given the global and agroclimatic uncertainties.
Moreover, the expected narrowing of the wedge between the
