What does the economy need? The Economic Survey has few answers.
GDP growth of 6.5–7%, “with risks evenly balanced, cognizant of the fact that the market expectations are on the higher side". However, it has not explained the assumptions that led it to arrive at this projection.
The Survey 2023-24 is a document for the new government beginning a fresh term. It gets it right when it points out that after almost eight decades of relative global peace, the world is facing heightened uncertainties, climate change being just one of those: “Any escalation of geopolitical conflicts in 2024 may lead to supply dislocations, higher commodity prices, reviving inflationary pressures and stalling monetary policy easing with potential repercussions for capital flows….
It should follow that if India has nurtured a growth rate of 8 percent GDP annually in this hostile environment, there will be a need to push through a large number of domestic reforms." The trouble is that the Survey is muted on what those reforms might be. The chapter on agriculture repeats the well-flagged point on procurement of food grains at MSP (minimum support prices) and distribution of foodgrains at less than economic cost having financial implications for the government: “The economic cost of both wheat and rice witnessed a significant increase during the last few years due to an increase in MSPs and a proportionate increase in the incidentals".
But offers no politically feasible policy choices on how government can tackle the issue. Similarly, for other agricultural practices such as hydroponics, it brings a wealth of evidence to make the case for crops diversification.
These too are well known. The Survey leaves us no better informed on the political economy problem at hand in this – how government can remove the skews in
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