Economists say inflation would be worse under Trump than Biden
Donald Trump loves to remind voters that President Biden has overseen the highest inflation in 40 years. But don’t count on Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for president, to bring inflation down faster than Biden if he wins the presidential election in November. Most economists believe inflation, deficits and interest rates would be higher during a second Trump administration than if Biden remains in the White House, according to a quarterly survey of forecasters by The Wall Street Journal.
“I think there is a real risk that inflation will reaccelerate under a Trump presidency," said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. That would likely lead the Federal Reserve to set interest rates higher than if inflation continues its downward trajectory, he added. The Journal’s survey, conducted July 5-9, received responses from 68 professional forecasters from business, Wall Street and academia.
Of the 50 who answered questions about Trump and Biden, 56% said inflation would be higher under another Trump term than a Biden term, versus 16% who said the opposite. The remainder saw no material difference. Biden is under growing pressure to step aside as the Democratic presidential nominee.
But economists’ views of inflation and interest rates appear mostly driven by Trump’s policy preferences, in particular on trade and immigration. It is unlikely those assessments would change substantially with a different Democratic candidate. Trump has proposed a 10% across-the-board tariff on imports and a 60% or higher tariff on imports from China.
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