Modi vibes well with Trump. But India may not be ready for a second Trump term
Having survived an assassination attempt, and shown defiance and fighting spirit while under attack, former US president Donald Trump has improved his chances of beating a frail-looking Joe Biden, who struggles to convince American voters that he retains the mental acuity to continue in office for another term. Should Trump emerge as the 47th President of the US, as is highly likely, global geopolitical and geoeconomic conditions would swiftly change, given his economic policy plan announcements. This will impact India directly and indirectly through the global spillovers.
At a bilateral level, Trump has more than a working relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This matters when it comes to staving off Chinese aggression along the Line of Actual Control, even if this warmth in personal relations between the two leaders had not prevented the Trump administration, in 2019, from excluding India from the list of countries given preferential access to the US market under the Generalised System of Preferences. In a second presidential term, Trump has proposed to levy an import duty of 10% on all imports into the US, apart from 60% tariffs on those from China.
The prospect of India being given any concessional treatment is remote, and India’s merchandise exports to the US are likely to shrink. The likely fallout of Trump's economic policy plans already has the world worried. After having promised to sack Jerome Powell as the head of the US Federal Reserve, in a recent interview, Trump said he would allow Powell to serve out his full term, provided he did the right thing.
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