Economy to slow in 2024, economists see 50% recession odds: NABE
«The Drift» author provides insight on the economy and oil prices on «Kudlow.»
The U.S. economy, which is on pace to grow 5.2% in the third quarter, is heading for a sharp slowdown next year, according to the nation’s leading economists.
«The NABE [National Association of Business Economics] Outlook Survey Panel anticipates stronger U.S. economic growth projections for 2023 than in the October Outlook survey, but panelists expect growth to slow to 1% between the fourth quarter of 2023 and the fourth quarter of 2024,» said NABE President Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley, in the group’s latest survey.
U.S. GDP is expected to slow to 1.2% in the fourth quarter as tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP Now, which was updated on Dec. 1, citing a slowdown in construction spending and manufacturing.
U.S. manufacturing registered its 13th straight month of contraction, slipping 0.9% in November.
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Employees work on the assembly line at the Dakkota Integrated Systems manufacturing facility in Detroit. (Jeff Kowalsky/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Much of the third quarter’s spurt was tied to summer travel, which hit a record, in what was described as post-pandemic «revenge travel.»
Also, consumers spent on experiences such as concerts, including Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour, which ranked No. 1 by raking in nearly $800 million gross, per Forbes, but these patterns likely didn’t continue in the fourth quarter at the same level, economists say.
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Taylor Swift recently made history with «Speak Now (Taylor's Version.)» (Tom Cooper / Getty Images)
Even with a slowing economy,
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