Energy mix: Renewables are rising in India while thermal power expansion plans are on a slow track

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Almost everywhere on the planet, the great surge of coal power that fuelled two centuries of industrialization is receding. In rich countries, consumption peaked two decades ago and has since fallen by about half.

China managed to suck up every tonne that the developed world spurned since then, but that tide is now turning too. Coal-fired power there fell about 1% last year, despite a 5% jump in electricity usage. As recently as 2024, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted Chinese coal demand would keep breaking records for the next three years.

It now reckons it’s heading into decline, and will lose 180 million tonnes through 2030—which is like closing all the coal power stations and blast furnaces in Japan. There’s one remaining bright spot—India. But even there, coal’s defences are crumbling.

Indian consumption will rise by about 200 million tonnes through 2030, according to the IEA, offsetting all the decline from China, much as China once offset the decline from rich countries. The government in New Delhi is promising to build 97 gigawatts (GW) of additional coal power by 2035, nearly 50% more than is currently in place. Expansions might keep going as late as 2047 under proposals currently being discussed.

There’s just one problem with all this. One of the strongest arguments for coal’s continued relevance in India in the face of cheaper, cleaner renewables—the relative ease with which it can be built—is looking badly out of date. Take that proposed 97GW to be built over the next nine years.