ET poll sees India's growth at 6.6% in Q3, 7% for FY24
economists, decelerating from 7.6% in the preceding three months. Forecasts ranged from 6% to 7.2% for the quarter ended December. The Reserve Bank of India estimates the economy to have grown 6.5% in the period. The government is scheduled to release the data on Thursday.
Monetary policy may weigh
«A slowdown in state-led capex, which has been propelling investment, likely contributed to the expected deceleration in Q3,» said Rahul Bajoria, managing director and head of EM Asia (ex-China) economics at Barclays.
Experts said the agriculture sector may have also contributed to the slowdown, even as industry and services kept the economy growing. «The agricultural sector is expected to experience a pronounced slowdown due to diminished rainfall activity and subsequent declines in reservoir levels,» said Rajani Sinha, chief economist at CareEdge. «After a lower-than-projected kharif output, rabi sowing has exhibited a sluggish trend through most of the season, except for an uptick in the last couple of weeks,» Sinha said.
Growth is expected to slow further in the fourth quarter as the tight monetary policy starts to weigh on economic activity.
The poll pegged FY24 growth at 7.0%, lower than the first advance estimate of 7.3% but higher than the International Monetary Fund's projection of 6.7%. RBI also projects FY24 growth at 7.0%.
«We expect a relative slowing of the economy in the second half of the year due to passthrough of the previous monetary policy actions,» said Indranil Pan, chief economist at Yes Bank.
