Exit polls 2024: Track record could tell us whom to trust

livemint.com:

Mint have considered some select agencies whose predictions were available for the previous two national elections. At least two polling agencies—Today's Chanakya and Axis My India—made somewhat accurate predictions to varying degrees in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. For the purpose of this analysis, the errors are based on a comparison of an alliance’s final seat tally and the midpoint of the range that a pollster predicted.

For example, if a pollster predicted 300-350 seats for an alliance, which ended up winning 350 seats, the error is calculated as 25 out of 350, which is 7.1%. Pollsters typically have an acceptable tolerance range for the error, since predicting the exact figure is not possible. Today's Chanakya had the most accurate prediction for the National Democratic Alliance in both the 2014 and 2019 national polls, with a minimal error of 0.8% in 2019, and 1.2% error in 2014.

The agency had predicted 350 seats for NDA in 2019, and 340 in 2014. The BJP-led alliance emerged victorious on both occasions, securing 353 and 336 seats, respectively. Similarly, the agency’s forecast for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance was also close to the mark.

It predicted 95 seats in 2019, and 70 in 2014 for the UPA, which ended up garnering a total of 93 seats and 60 seats those two years, respectively. Two other agencies—Axis My India and Ipsos—also saw their predictions hit the bull’s eye at least in one case each. The midpoint of Axis My India’s prediction for the UPA was 93 seats in 2019, which is exactly what the alliance won.