Expect INR at 83 by Sept end; don’t expect rate cut before Q3 of 2024: Dhiraj Nim, ANZ Research

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Dhiraj Nim, Economist/FX Strategist, ANZ Research, says “the rupee could remain in a tight range of about 82.80, 82.90 to 83.10, the recent lows that have been established. My own forecast for September end is 83 per dollar, but there are a couple of more headwinds out there, apart from the dollar strength, namely the crude oil prices, which have surprised everybody on the upside. The rupee in near term could maintain a bit of weakening bias but we expect the RBI to remain present in the market to smooth out any volatility.”
The dollar index has seen quite a bit of surge and is already very close to that 105 mark. Do you see more strength there?
Our house view is that the dollar index could be at 105 by the end of this quarter. So, at least in the near term, we do not see significant upside, but let us be mindful that 105 is not a very easy level for any currencies in the emerging market space.

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We are seeing an impact as the rest of the currencies are weakening as well. What is the house view as far as the Indian rupee (INR) is concerned? It is very close to the record low level of around 83.29. Do you see it weakening further to 84-85?
Not really. We think the rupee could remain in this tight range of about 82.80, 82.90 to 83.10, the recent lows that have been established. My own forecast for September end is 83 per dollar, but let us just be mindful that there are a couple of more headwinds out there, apart from the dollar strength, namely the crude oil prices, which have