Explainer-Charting the Fed's economic data flow
(Reuters) — Federal Reserve officials project the U.S. central bank will cut its benchmark overnight interest rate during 2024, but the timing and pace of the reductions in borrowing costs will depend heavily on upcoming inflation and jobs data.
The Fed will hold its next policy meeting on Jan. 30-31, and while the central bank is expected to maintain its policy rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range, data in the meantime could bring the prospects of rate cuts into better focus.
This year begins with a rush of major readings on the jobs market, consumer spending and inflation. Here is a guide to some of the numbers shaping the policy debate:
JOB OPENINGS (Released Jan. 3, next release Jan. 30):
Fed Chair Jerome Powell keeps a close eye on the U.S. Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for information on the imbalance between labor supply and demand, and particularly on the number of job openings for each person who is without a job but looking for one. The ratio had been falling steadily towards its pre-pandemic level, but in November remained close to 1.4-to-1, still above the 1.2-to-1 level seen before the health crisis. Other aspects of the survey, like the quits rate, have edged back to pre-pandemic levels.
INFLATION (PCE released Dec. 22; next release CPI, Jan. 11):
Annual inflation by the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures price index fell to 2.6% in November and prices on a monthly basis declined for the first time since April 2020. The «core» index excluding food and energy prices also declined to 3.2%, the lowest that key gauge of trend inflation has been since April 2021.
Fed officials at their final policy meeting of 2023 forecast continued improvement in both
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