Extending the life of Origin Energy’s 2800-megawatt Eraring coal-fired power station in NSW by two years would significantly ease pressure on the electricity grid, according to modelling done by the Australian Energy Market Operator.
While Origin told regulators it planned to retire Eraring by August 2025, AEMO found keeping two units running at Australia’s largest power station to August 2027 would help avoid potential blackouts in the state.
Origin Energy could close its Eraring coal-fired power station in NSW by as early as 2025. Dean Sewell
The modelling, included in AEMO’s Electricity Statement of Opportunities to be released on Thursday, will put further pressure on the Minns government to agree a deal with Origin, similar to deals done in Victoria.
AEMO found there were reliability gaps in the NSW grid in 2025-26 when Eraring was due to close, which could be eased if the power station was kept open for a few more years.
“Delaying generator retirement has the potential to address medium-term risks if necessary,” AEMO said.
“This sensitivity is not informed by specific insights on possible courses of action regarding the retirement of Eraring, but seeks to demonstrate the potential impact on reliability risks of a partial extension.”
Origin, the subject of an $18.7 billion takeover bid from two North American suitors, was committed to closing Eraring just after mid-2025. But a review for the NSW government advised that it may need to run beyond that date as replacement supply projects fall behind schedule, including the massive $12 billion Snowy 2.0.
The review reportedly found NSW might need to rely on traditional power sources, including coal and gas, to avoid electricity shortfalls as the state transitions to
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