Factbox-Global economy to slow down but likely avoid recession in 2024
(Reuters) -Some major banks expect global economic growth to ease further in 2024, squeezed by elevated interest rates, higher energy prices and a slowdown in the world's two largest economies.
The global economy is forecast to grow 2.9% this year, a Reuters poll showed, with next year's growth seen slowing to 2.6%.
Most economists expect the global economy to avoid a recession, but have flagged possibilities of «mild recessions» in Europe and the United Kingdom.
A soft landing for the United States is still on the cards, although uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening path clouds the outlook. China's growth is seen weakening, exacerbated by companies seeking alternative, cost-efficient production destinations.
Following are forecasts from major global banks:
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024
GLOBAL U.S. CHINA EURO UK INDIA
AREA
Goldman 2.60% 2.10% 4.80% 0.90% 0.6% 6.3%
Sachs
Morgan 2.80% 1.90% 4.20% 0.50% -0.1% 6.4%
Stanley
UBS 2.60% 1.10% 4.40% 0.60% 0.6% 6.2%
Barclays 2.60% 1.20% 4.40% 0.30% 0.1% 6.2%
J.P.Morg 2.20% 1.60% 4.90% 0.40% 0.2% 5.7%
an
HSBC 4.90%
BofA 2.8% 1.4% 4.8% 0.50% 0.1% 5.7%
Global
Research
Deutsche 2.4% 0.6% 4.7% 0.20% 0.3% 6.0%
Bank
U.S. inflation (annual Federal funds
Y/Y for 2024) target rate (Dec
'24)
Headline CPI Core PCE
Goldman Sachs 2.40% 2.60% 5.13%
Morgan Stanley 2.10% 2.70% 4.375%
UBS 2.70% 2.75%
Wells Fargo 2.50% 2.60% 4.75%-5.00%
Barclays 2.70% 5.25%-5.50%
J.P.Morgan 2.50% 2.50% 4.50%
BofA Global 2.80% 4.50%-4.75%
Research
Deutsche Bank 2.10% 3.63%
The Fed's main rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%.
S&P 500 US 10-year EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/C
target yield NY
target
Goldman Sachs 4700 4.55% 1.10 150.00 7.15
Morgan Stanley 4500 1 140
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