For Indian market, base case of around 13% annual return seen in 2025: Rajeev Agarwal
Rajeev Agarwal, Fund Manager & Managing Partner, Doordarshi India Fund, says the policy measures will drive to a very large extent what happens either on the upside or the downside. Markets may not tell the full story because there is a story about some stocks that have risen a lot in 2024 and maybe they will take a little bit of a backseat while some others that have been punished in 2024 may have a better opportunity as we go into 2025. It may be a lot more stock-specific rather than market-specific. But from an Indian stock perspective, the base case of around 13% annual return is quite reasonable.
What exactly are you expecting in terms of the market dynamics – globally as well as back home? What’s in store for global markets next year, after they have been navigating through this election cycle, lots of unusual market dynamics as well?
Rajeev Agarwal: For 2025, clearly the one big event is Trump taking over the reins as the US President. A lot of policy measures are expected to be introduced by Trump very quickly. Clearly, he has the people that he wanted and many of those will get confirmed. That is going to be the one big event which will drive a lot of the markets.
Beyond that, as we get some sort of visibility on both the Mid-east crisis as well as the Ukraine-Russia crisis. Coming back to India, we have to see if some of the current pullback that has happened on the financial side, persists and also how long the problems on the MFI and the banking side will persist because that will be a critical driver
