Gautam Trivedi on what should be your core portfolio strategy
«Does the US have the ability to actually service all of this debt and will that additional 25 or 50 bps rate hike by the Fed tip the scale towards a full-blown recession? I do not think so as yet,» says Gautam Trivedi, Nepean Capital.It has been a good year if you bought stocks in April, May, June or even July so the summer rally of 2023 do you think it will extend in itself for the remaining part of the year? I think it will. And let us understand one very basic thing, which I think sometimes people, when I meet them socially, they think India is the only country in the world that seems to be having a stock market rally. And all the money in the world seems to be only coming here because if you read the financial newspapers or media channels, you almost get the feeling that we are alone in the world.
But this is a global rally. Let us understand that year-to-date the total amount in terms of market cap expansion of the world has gone up by $6 trillion. You have got the DAX.
You have got the CAC. You have got the Nikkei at all-time highs. The Nifty 50, of course, all-time highs.
These are real events that are happening across the world. So in spite of all of the war in the Ukraine, the price of oil, Saudi Arabia trying to keep the price of oil up all of that has nothing to do with liquidity. Liquidity seems to be coming unabated.
And I think that is what is really driving the markets right now.So let us understand the global setup. Inflation is coming back. It could be tomato and onion but it is corn, wheat, maize, and US residential prices, at least for the developed market. If the narrative changes, which is that from no more rate hike to one more coming, could that really act like a sledgehammer for the global setup?
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