Gods have already voted: Expect a normal monsoon; expected to be 106% of LPA, as La Niña kicks in
India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast “above normal” rain for the June-September monsoon, boosting prospects of a bountiful agricultural harvest that will likely ease inflationary pressure and bolster growth.
This follows uneven rain in 2023, mainly due to the El Niño effect, leading to patchy farm output that pushed up food prices and kept the central bank from cutting interest rates.
Rain in the country’s southwest is expected to be 106% of the long period average (LPA), with a 5% margin of error. IMD defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50- year average of 87 cm for the season. The department announced the monsoon forecast on Monday.
“During the years when La Niña is preceded by El Niño (such as this year), we have got more than normal rainfall during the season,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD. Nine such years have been recorded, all with above-normal rains, according to data from 1951 to 2023, he said.
The weather office has predicted abovenormal seasonal rainfall over most parts of the country, except some areas in the northwest, east and northeast India, where it’s likely to be below normal.
El Niño conditions, known for deficient rainfall in India, are now at a moderate level, and are expected to turn to La Niña by August-September, raising expectations of normal rainfall. El Niño conditions are likely to turn ENSO-neutral during the early part of monsoon.
ENSO, or El Niño-Southern Oscillation, relates to Pacific winds and
