Gold prices have remained resilient in recent weeks in the face of broad market volatility, decoupling somewhat from its typical price drivers — bond yields and the dollar.
Even as 10-year Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index rose from intra-year lows toward the end of January, the precious metal held above $1,800 per troy ounce. As of Friday afternoon, spot gold was still trading around that $1,800/oz marker.
Despite the challenging macro backdrop of supply chain issues, surging inflation and lingering pandemic risks, Bank of America strategists have noted that some of the investment flows into gold have been very resilient.
«There are significant dislocations buried beneath headline inflation, interest rates and currency moves, raising the appeal of holding the yellow metal in a portfolio and supporting our $1,925/oz average gold price forecast for 2022,» BofA analysts said in a research note at the end of January.
Also central to gold's resilience, according to UBS, is a combination of elevated demand for portfolio hedges and a belief either that the Federal Reserve «stays behind the curve» on tackling inflation or overtightens, causing growth to falter.
In a note Friday, UBS Chief Investment Office strategists highlighted that gold's «tried-and-tested insurance characteristics» had again shone through versus other common portfolio diversifiers, including digital assets such as bitcoin.
«On the one hand, its overall stability in the face of a hawkish pivot by the Fed, money market participants' shift to aggressively price numerous U.S. rate hikes in 2022 and higher U.S. real rate proxies like U.S. 10-year TIPS bonds has surprised some,» the note said.
«But, alternatively, the yellow metal's resilience is broadly
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