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Gulf war shadow: India's $11 billion mobile phone export success story now faces a $3 billion challenge
NEW DELHI: India’s steadily rising mobile phone exports, which generated $11 billion in revenue in the first six months of the current fiscal, are expected to take a multi-billion-dollar hit as a result of a prolonged impact of the Iran war on consumption, imports and freight transit in the Gulf region.Executives, analysts and brokerage firms estimate a loss of $2 billion-3 billion on India’s electronics exports, largely because electronics manufacturing services (EMS) companies export a sizeable quantity of mobile phones to the Gulf area—a key trade and consumption hub.Mobile phones are among the top five most-impacted commodities as a result of the Gulf nations and the West Asia region being directly affected in Israel and the US’s war on Iran, analysts Suvodeep Rakshit and Swarupjit Palit at brokerage firm Kotak Institutional Equities wrote in a note to investors on 6 March.The analysts cited India’s commerce ministry data to say that mobile phone exports to the Gulf and West Asia rose to $3.1 billion in FY25, accounting for 12% of the country’s net electronics exports. This entire chunk may be affected and EMS companies that rely significantly on mobile phone manufacturing may be substantially hit, at least in the current quarter and next.If the conflict continues, the entire $3 billion in export value may be wiped off in the next fiscal year, the Kotak analysts said.
To circumvent this impact, EMS companies may ramp up exports to other regions, including the US, the UK, China, Japan, the Netherlands, Germany and Mexico.Mobile phone exports have grown steadily in India. Electronics, driven by the Centre’s manufacturing incentives and exports push, are India’s third most-shipped out commodity, the ministry of
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