
HDFC Bank and Shriram Finance poised to ride sectoral tailwinds; Motilal Oswal sees 12-18% upside scope
The banking sector's elevated credit-deposit ratio of 80.5% underscores the continued importance of deposit mobilization to sustain growth momentum.
The affordable housing finance segment (HFCs) and gold loan providers (NBFCs) stood out as strong performers, with gold loan AUM growing ~29% YoY. Vehicle financiers (NBFCs) reported stable disbursements, benefiting from their fixed-rate loan portfolios, which saw ~20% YoY AUM growth.
However, mid-ticket mortgage loans (HFCs) and unsecured retail credit (banks/NBFCs) experienced slower growth as lenders exercised caution.
The microfinance sector (NBFC-MFIs), while still facing elevated credit costs ranging from 9–34%, demonstrated improving collection efficiency—particularly in Karnataka, where March collections showed significant recovery.
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Net interest margins (NIMs) remained stable across most segments, though gold lenders (NBFCs) and affordable housing providers (HFCs) witnessed modest compression of 10–15 bps due to rising funding costs. Asset quality remained largely stable, with housing finance companies (HFCs) and power financiers (NBFCs) reporting measurable improvements.
The sector is well-positioned to benefit from the evolving rate cycle, with potential RBI rate cuts expected to provide lagged benefits over the next 3–6 months.
The financial sector is poised for a measured 12% credit growth in FY26, led by secured lending segments. Vehicle financiers (NBFCs) may see NIM expansion from potential rate cuts, while deposit mobilization