Herd mentality fading? Retail investors turned selective ahead of Budget 2026
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Retail investors, once quick to load up on stocks ahead of the Union Budget, turned more cautious this year. The shift had less to do with the Budget itself and more to do with with the circumstances of the market.
Slower earnings growth, global uncertainty, commodity price swings and patchy returns have made individual investors far more selective about where they put their money. This change in behaviour is visible in the numbers. Though many small investors had been actively buying during the Sensex’s nearly 7% rise in the December quarter, positioning for a possible policy boost, their participation has since narrowed.
Out of 2,321 companies analyzed by Mint, only 967 firms or 42% saw an increase in ownership by small retail investors (those holding shares worth up to ₹2 lakh) during the December 2025 quarter. This was down from 48% in the September 2025 quarter and marked the lowest level since December 2021. The median return on Budget Day 2026 for stocks where retail shareholding had increased sequentially between September and December 2025 was just -0.14%, even as the Sensex dropped nearly 2%, its steepest single-day drop since 2020.
The trend is not new. In 2025, retail-favoured stocks rose just 0.1% on Budget Day while the BSE Sensex was flat. In 2024, these stocks fell 0.3% while the index was nearly unchanged, and in 2023 they dropped 1.4% even as the index gained 0.3%.
In sharp contrast to previous years, retail investors were net sellers ahead of Budget 2026. About 55% of companies saw retail shareholding fall, the highest level since 2021. “The headline numbers may look uncomfortable, but they don’t mean retail investors are abandoning equities," said Akshat Garg, head
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