Here’s what will surely happen in 2026. Unless it doesn’t.
Kevins for Fed Chair. Nope. Not going to happen. Meaning I see neither Kevin Hassett nor Kevin Warsh becoming chairman of the Federal Reserve in May.
Remember that President Donald Trump—our reality TV veteran overlord—loves nothing more than to keep us all guessing and then, poof, picking a wild card. Who gets the nod? Look for Scott Bessent (not so wild) or Fed governor Chris Waller (hat tip to Jeff Sonenfeld of Yale) to get tabbed.AI Erodes Social Media. I think this is a significant, underrecognized trend.
The beauty of Instagram or TikTok used to be that you would see things that would amaze you, whether it was your old high school pal Bruce playing with lion cubs in South Africa or some guy juggling plates while simultaneously paddling down the Ganges. (Wow!) All kinds of stuff, but it was real. Now with artificial intelligence, you see Chairman Mao playing badminton with Brigitte Bardot.
OK, that’s clearly fake. But how about the picture of all those NBA superstars together, including Bill Russell and Kobe Bryant? Was that taken when Russ and Kobe were still alive? Who knows? I recently posted a beauty shot of my wife on a horse on a mountain and friends wondered if it was AI. I think people will find this increasing speculation of real versus fake to be tiresome and begin to tune out.Geopolitical Stasis Continues. Yes, the word “continues” is the bane of headline writers, but I see no way around it.
We are in an era which I am sure historians will refer to as that of the Three Strong Men, that is Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Donald Trump, and I see nothing (elections, death, or coups) changing that in 2026. So the stasis, i.e., inactive equilibrium, will remain. The bigger point is that these mighty three
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