



The rupee’s decline and what it means for your investment portfolio
rupee stood at about 10 to the dollar. From then to now, the average annual depreciation works out to roughly 4.5%. At independence, when the rupee was on a par with the dollar, the long-term annual depreciation is closer to 6%.The faster pace in earlier decades is largely a matter of arithmetic.
A move from 10 to 20 represents a 100% depreciation on a point-to-point basis. A move from 80 to 90, by contrast, is a 12.5% depreciation. Psychological levels such as 90 or 91 still matter because they are crossed for the first time, but such thresholds were always going to be breached eventually, and that moment has now arrived.As a ballpark, in calendar year 2025 the rupee has depreciated by more than 5% at closing levels and over 6% at its weakest point, well above its roughly 3% annual average over the past quarter-century.There are multiple factors at play, and at the same time.
The commonly cited reasons for the rupee’s slide include significant foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows in 2025, uncertainty around the bilateral trade agreement with the US, and a slowdown in net foreign direct investment.At a more structural level, however, the underlying reason is India’s persistent current account deficit. We import more than we export. Over time, currency depreciation helps preserve export competitiveness.
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