The economy has repeatedly flummoxed the experts in recent years. Almost no one expected inflation would rise so much, interest rates to jump so quickly or higher interest rates to show so little effect on the economy.
So has something fundamentally changed about the economy? Yes, if the current economic cycle is compared with those of the 2000s. When the frame of reference is expanded to the last 80 years, the current cycle starts to make sense, though it’s no easier to predict.
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