How insulated is the US economy from the Iran war?

. 28, lasts for only a few more weeks, falling gas prices will likely deliver an economic tailwind later this year. If the stress continues for months, however, economists will start to worry about a slowdown, or even a recession.President Trump in a prime-time speech Wednesday said he would achieve America’s military objectives “very shortly” and vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard over the next two to three weeks.” Equities markets closed little changed Thursday, while U.S. oil futures soared.The U.S.

entered the war as a major oil producer, which gives it a cushion against shortages, but doesn’t help much on price because oil is sold on a global market. If gas prices remain elevated for a few more weeks, that would start to take a bite out of growth, say some economists. Just a few months of inflated gas prices and snarled supply chains could halt growth altogether and tip the economy into a recession, they say.The West Coast is especially vulnerable to spillover effects from the Middle East.

California imports nearly 18% of its crude from the Gulf, while other crude-importing states largely draw from Canada and Latin America. Cargoes of gasoline, jet fuel and other refined products are expected to become more scarce as early as May or June, according to Andy Walz, who runs the refining, pipeline and chemical businesses at Chevron, the largest oil company in California.Farms, hospitals and chip factories rely on goods that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The prices for fertilizers such as urea are up sharply, and lower availability could weigh on crop yields in coming seasons.