
A ceasefire will not prevent the Iran war’s economic harm
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Throughout the war in Iran most investors have bet that an economic catastrophe would not take place. Oil and gas prices would need to rise to the stratosphere to destroy demand for the fuel that flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That would cause recession and high inflation.
So commodities prices rose to painful, rather than disastrous, levels. The planned reopening of the strait seems to have justified the optimism. As we published this, stocks and bonds alike had rallied.
The S&P 500 index of stocks sat only about 3% beneath its all-time high, reached in late January.If the ceasefire fails the rally would be reversed and then some, because investors would have to price in a war that is resistant to peacemaking. If it holds, recession will be avoided, but commodities markets will still feel the effects of the war for months to come. Gulf countries have cut their output of crude by 10m barrels per day, or 10% of global supply.
It will take time to restart infrastructure and get it going full pelt, and to move tankers to the right places. Insuring cargoes could be pricey, and Iran may try to impose new tolls, creating uncertainty even if it fails. There is likely to be a lasting risk premium in oil prices, reflecting the chance of renewed fighting.This lasting disruption explains why, if futures prices are to be believed, the price of a barrel of Brent crude will end the year at around $75, about a quarter higher than was expected at the start of 2026.
Similar hangovers will be felt in other commodities markets. Gas infrastructure is even harder to get going than oil wells. Qatar’s Ras Laffan export facility lost 17% of its capacity in a drone attack and will take years to repair.
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