Strait of Malacca: will it be the next flashpoint in a war over seaborne cargo passage after Hormuz?

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.If the Iran War has taught us nothing else, it’s that weaponizing shipping routes is now the military move du jour. That has rightly turned attention to the Taiwan Strait, but in this era of intense US-China rivalry, the Strait of Malacca is just as important.The shipping route—which carries roughly 40% of global trade and around 80% of China’s imported oil—has long been regarded as vulnerable to disruption. Southeast Asia’s divisions will make any crisis much harder to contain.

The confrontation between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz has shown how easily chokepoints can be militarized and how quickly economic fallout can spread. The same logic applies to Malacca, except that here, the consequences would cut to the heart of Asia’s economies. Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore border the strait and jointly manage it, but have no common framework to deal with pressure in their own waters.

Existing cooperation has largely been limited to operational issues such as piracy and safety, but that approach is poorly suited to geopolitical pressure.Recent discussions between Jakarta and Washington on expanding defence cooperation indicate the Trump administration could be seeking a greater role in the region. Earlier this month, the two announced a major defence partnership and discussed the possibility of expanded US military overflights through Indonesian airspace. Jakarta has stressed that nothing has been finalized, but even limited access would enhance US ability to monitor—and project forces across—this corridor linking the Pacific and Indian oceans.