Pulse of the Street: Will the April sprint stumble over $126 oil and a 95-plus Rupee?

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Indian equities ended the holiday-truncated week only marginally higher, as stalled talks between the US and Iran and president Donald Trump's rejection of Tehran's proposal to remove the blockade of Hormuz pushed crude prices to a three-year high of $126 per barrel.Still, benchmark indices posted their best monthly show in nearly three years in a relief rally, as investors piled into beaten-down stocks after US and Iran announced a ceasefire early in April following more than a month of conflict.Surging crude prices pushed the rupee to a record low of 95.32 against the US dollar, sparking concerns that a fragile West Asia truce could unravel, intensifying inflationary and margin pressures. The weakening currency also accelerated foreign outflows, further dampening market sentiment.The Nifty 50 slipped 0.3% to 23,997.55, while the Sensex fell 0.8% to 76,913.5 on Thursday amid geopolitical concerns.

The markets opened with a huge gap-down, prompting value buying later in the day and helping both indices end the week marginally higher by 0.42% and 0.33%, respectively.As a result, both indices logged their strongest monthly performance in nearly three years, with the Nifty gaining 7.5% and the Sensex 7% in April—their most impressive gains since late 2023. The surge was fuelled by a sharp relief rally following the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, when markets jumped 6% in the opening week—their best weekly performance in five years.Underpinning the headline gains was a broadening of market participation.