How low could gold go?

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Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The age-old Dalal Street tale of Varmaji and Sharmaji is one many investors know well. Neighbours yet opposites, Varmaji sticks to fixed deposits and rides a Bajaj scooter, while Sharmaji, an active stock investor, also rides a scooter but soon upgrades to a gleaming car during a bull market.

With his newfound wealth, Sharmaji enjoys overseas vacations, brimming with optimism and confidence. Meanwhile, Varmaji, plagued by FOMO (fear of missing out) and spurred on by his wife’s remarks about his “conservative" approach, dives into the stock market at its peak—and is left holding not just the baby, but the bathwater and the tub too. Now he’s forced into the role of a 'long-term investor'—the path most traders take when they buy at the top.

Gold prices in domestic markets have surged over 30% in the past year, largely due to geopolitical turmoil. However, on Monday, prices softened, reflecting global cues as the dollar index slipped to a near two-week low, Reuters reported. If you've recently bought bullion, Varmaji's story might resonate.

But is it really as bleak as it seems? In a recent write-up, I anticipated a decline in gold prices, potentially as early as 2024. Any seasoned investor knows that the best approach to long-term investing is to deploy money gradually, allowing room to average down at lower prices. The long-term bullish outlook for gold remains solid.