How to avoid a green-metals crunch

livemint.com:

lithium six- to seven-fold. All told, a carbon-neutral world in 2050 will require 35m tonnes of green metals a year, predicts the International Energy Agency, an official forecaster. Adding aluminium and steel to the mix, the ETC forecasts that demand between now and then will hit 6.5bn tonnes.

Hence why analysts and policymakers worry about an almighty supply crunch towards the end of the decade. The ETC expects shortages of market-breaking magnitudes by 2030: some 10-15% for copper and nickel, and 30-45% for other battery metals. When dwindling stocks cause prices to rise, producers will crank up output and customers use scarce materials more efficiently or turn to cheaper alternatives.

What demand remains unmet after this will be destroyed, however, as would-be buyers that cannot or will not pay higher prices are forced out of the market. Too much of such demand destruction will kill the green transition. The question, then, is simple.

Can the crunch be minimised? Start by considering the metals in question. Three are already widely used in industry: aluminium and steel are the backbone of panels and turbines, and copper is vital for everything from cables to cars. Then come those powering electric vehicles (EVs): cobalt, lithium and nickel, which make up battery cathodes, and graphite, the main anode element.

Except for nickel, which is also an ingredient in stainless steel, all these have only niche applications. The last group features magnetic rare earths like neodymium, found in EV motors and turbine generators. These are required only in minuscule amounts.