How will the mass protests that are convulsing Iran unfold?

The government was paralysed, its leaders unable to change course because they were too weak, ideological or inept (and in some cases all three). It was only a matter of time until such gloom gave rise to another round of mass protest. The only question was what would trigger it.It came from an unlikely corner on December 28th, when electronics vendors in Tehran went on strike.

Their grievances were straightforward: most of their wares are imported, and it is hard to buy and sell imported goods when the currency is in free-fall. But the unrest quickly spread. Other businesses followed suit, including merchants in the capital’s grand bazaar, which is seen as a weathervane of Iranian politics.Street protests started in Tehran and swiftly spread to Isfahan, Shiraz and other big cities.

Their chants grew more political: “Death to the dictator” is not merely a call for a stable exchange rate. In one provincial town in the south people tried to storm a municipal building. On December 31st schools and offices were ordered to shut across 21 of Iran’s 31 provinces.

Officially, the closure was meant to conserve energy during a cold snap. But many Iranians saw it as a scheme to keep would-be troublemakers at home.The demonstrations have not been huge—thousands of people, rather than millions as in 2009—but they are the biggest since 2022, when Iran was roiled by protests after a young woman arrested for her “indecent” dress (ie, appearing with her hair uncovered) died in police custody. The regime has cracked down hard in small towns but so far tended to avoid open confrontation in big cities.