Is Trump’s America trying to outdo the Opec cartel on oil clout? Here’s why this game won’t work

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. From a certain angle, US President Donald Trump is doing in a matter of weeks what other leaders could never have dreamt of: Assembling an oil cartel with sufficient sway to rival Opec and acquiring a kill switch for the energy-importing economy of America’s prime geopolitical rival, China. Combine Trump’s supposed hegemony over the Americas since the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on 3 January with control over a post-revolution Iran, and you’re at about 42% of global oil production.

Add to that the fact that China is the biggest importer of both Venezuelan and Iranian oil, and Beijing suddenly looks vulnerable. Not so fast. The bigger lesson from Washington’s actions in Venezuela and from any hypothetical backing of regime change in Iran is that diplomatic actions may change leaders, but they rarely alter the underlying relationships between oil producers and their customers.

Such trade relationships, in turn, influence diplomatic alliances. Since World War II, politicians who’ve sought to control these flows have almost always failed. As we’ve noted before, China will be central to the next act in Venezuela’s drama.

Beijing plays a similar if not more important role for Iran, and it’s one that is unlikely to be diminished by Trump’s latest efforts in the global theatre of geopolitics. Even if relations with the US or other Western powers were to improve under a different leadership in Tehran— a very big if —Iran is unlikely to abandon its strategic alignment with China. The two are tied together in a loose web of diplomatic, economic and security networks.