How worried should Europe be as Russia starts cutting off gas supplies?
The unavoidable truth looming over Europe’s response to the invasion of Ukraine is that Russian gas heats the continent’s homes and powers its industries.
While European leaders have vowed to wean themselves off Kremlin-controlled supplies, both of gas and oil, the reality is that this is very hard to do in short order. There will be at least one more cold winter to come before major energy-hungry economies that rely heavily on Russia, such as Germany and Italy, can tap other sources.
Knowing this, Vladimir Putin fired a shot across the bows this week. Having issued a decree that foreign buyers must start paying for their gas in roubles, he made Poland and Bulgaria the laboratory mice for the experiment.
Both countries, the Kremlin announced, would no longer be receiving Russian gas through the Yamal pipeline from Siberia after they refused to accede to the demand. The decision could usher in a new phase of the war, with Russia making good on Putin’s threat to use its vast gas reserves as a weapon against Europe.
The two countries appear to have been chosen carefully. Poland gets about 45% of its natural gas from Russia, according to 2020 figures from Eurostat. That’s not sky-high by European standards but Poland happens to be among the countries that have been most politically and militarily supportive of Ukraine.
Bulgaria poses less of a threat to the Russian war effort but is more reliant on its gas, which accounts for about 73% of demand.
Targeting these two countries allows Putin to test the power of his resource weapon on two different types of opponents – one that poses a genuine threat and another that looks more vulnerable and could serve as a salutary lesson to others in a similar position.
Both have said they can and
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