An international team of more than 200 researchers identified 26 natural processes or features at risk of being suddenly and irreversibly disrupted by climate change, including ice sheets, tropical rainforests, mountain glaciers, ocean currents and coral reefs. They found that the mass death of warm-water coral reefs is likely at current levels of warming (1.2C), while four other processes — the collapse of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, disruption of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre circulation and abrupt thawing of permafrost regions — are considered possible.
The researchers also identified positive tipping points, including rapid improvement in battery technologies as electric cars become more popular — a development that could in turn could make the widespread use of renewable energy easier.
The report is a “tale of two future paths for humanity,” lead author Tim Lenton, a professor of climate change and earth system science at Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, said in a press briefing.
“We’ve basically left it too late for incremental action. Instead, we need to find and trigger what we’re calling some positive tipping points that accelerate action down an alternative pathway.”
The risks of irreversible disruptions are ramping up with every small increment of warming, Lenton said.
The report comes as global leaders and negotiators gather at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai, where many are clashing with oil execs and each other over how to reduce emissions.
Progress thus far includes commitments from 20 countries to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030, a pledge by 50 oil companies to reduce methane emissions and forward momentum on a fund for loss and damage. But negotiators are struggling
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