



Import curbs may raise demand for silver ETFs
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.MUMBAI: The government’s decision to curb silver bar imports could push exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking the white metal from trading at a discount to moving into a premium over spot prices, after two weeks, amid concerns of an impending supply squeeze, analysts said.This would mark a shift from ETFs trading at a discount to net asset value (NAV), which is calculated from spot prices, to potentially trading at a premium. It implies that if spot prices rise, ETF prices could rise more, and if spot prices fall, they would fall less than the spot.Premiums and discounts typically reflect demand conditions.
When demand for ETF units is weak, they trade below NAV or MCX spot-linked silver prices. When demand strengthens, they can flip into a premium.
Under normal conditions, ETF prices track NAV closely. But sharp swings in investor demand can cause temporary misalignment.For instance, the most popular silver ETF, SilverBees, traded at ₹249.85 per unit as of Friday, about 1.3% below its then NAV of ₹253.12, reflecting subdued demand.
That discount, analysts said, could quickly flip into a premium on Monday if investors rush in amid fears of a shortage of investment-grade silver following the government’s curbs.Even silver futures and options on the MCX could be affected by the government order. “Silver prices could gap up on Monday due to a perceived supply squeeze,” said Naveen Mathur, director at Anand Rathi Share & Stock Brokers.On Saturday, the government moved silver bars from the “free” to the “restricted” import category to rein in demand and conserve foreign exchange.
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