India has entered cyclical growth slowdown, RBI's 7.2 pc estimate 'overly optimistic': Nomura
Nomura on Monday said the Indian economy has entered a phase of "cyclical growth slowdown" and the Reserve Bank's estimate of 7.2 per cent GDP expansion is «overly optimistic». The brokerage said it sees «rising downside risks» to its GDP growth estimates of 6.7 per cent in the ongoing FY25 and 6.8 per cent in FY26.
«We believe India's economy has entered a cyclical growth slowdown. Coincident and leading growth indicators point to a further moderation in GDP growth and the RBI's forecast of 7.2 per cent for FY25 is overly optimistic,» the brokerage said in a note.
The RBI maintained its FY25 growth estimate at 7.2 per cent earlier this month, even as some watchers have been coming out with lower numbers.
Nomura said urban consumption indicators have been softening lately, and pointed to the slump in passenger vehicle sales, moderation in airline passenger traffic and FMCG companies flagging weak urban demand.
«We believe this weakness in urban demand is likely to continue,» the brokerage said.
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