Here's how the outcome will affect our economy, through the lens of three main transmission channels:
America's fisc is in a mess. If any other country were to run a deficit like the US — over 6% year after year — IMF would have given its leaders a dressing down and imposed an austerity programme. But thanks to the post-Bretton Woods global economic order, and exorbitant privilege conferred on the dollar as the international reserve currency, the US can afford to live beyond its means and off much poorer countries.
Unfortunately, the deficit is something neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris is likely to fix. They know that in the existing world order, they don't need to. So, the difference is only of degree. Sure, the growing public debt is something that will eventually boomerang on American citizens. But, for now, they can brush it under the carpet, like the US does with everything that doesn't suit its narrow and immediate interests. Think climate change.
Trump doesn't believe in fiscal prudence. Over the months, he's been adding new tax cuts to his list of campaign promises. Taken together, his proposed tax cuts would likely reduce federal revenues by nearly $7 tn over the course of a decade, according to Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates, increasing the US deficit by $5.8 tn over the same period.
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