India inflation likely rose to 3.4% in March 2026: Mint poll

This will be the third CPI print under the new series with the 2024 base year. Economists in the poll expect March CPI to be within a wide range of 3.1% to 4%, with some flagging upside risks as the war has driven crude oil prices sharply higher.“Headline CPI is expected to rise in March, led by an increase in non-food segments, even as food inflation is expected to remain steady,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at Icra Ltd.Some economists flagged a fading base effect as another key driver.

Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ Bank, said a fading base effect, particularly in the food basket, would likely push headline inflation higher. "Overall, headline CPI remains benign, but it is accelerating,” he added.A few economists also highlighted the inflationary impact of the rise in prices of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), aviation turbine fuel (ATF), and kerosene— all of which came under pressure after the West Asia war began on 28 February.

Effective 7 March, domestic LPG cylinder prices rose by ₹60, while commercial cylinder costs increased by more than ₹100.“Higher energy prices in March will be reflected in the CPI only to the extent that they passed through to domestic cooking gas prices, which were hiked modestly,” added ANZ’s Nim.The union government and oil marketing companies (OMCs) have so far shielded consumers from elevated crude prices, though pump prices could rise further if oil remains high. Crude prices have eased since a two-week US-Iran ceasefire came into effect on 8 April, but they remain well above pre-war levels, keeping the outlook uncertain.Most economists in the poll said risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, though much will depend on how long the conflict lasts.The RBI also noted