India inflation preview: 8 experts share what is expected from September CPI data

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What the RBI’s monetary policy report says about inflation drivers, in charts (Exciting news! Mint is now on WhatsApp Channels. Subscribe today by clicking the link and stay updated with the latest financial insights! Click here!) Mint talked to eight experts to get their views on the upcoming inflation print. Here's what they said: Moderation in the vegetable spike is expected to help cool the Sept 2023 inflation print to 5.5 per cent.

Thereafter, we anticipate the headline CPI inflation to remain in a range of 5-6 per cent over the next three quarters. We expect CPI inflation to cool in September led by a sharp correction in vegetable prices, some softness in milk inflation and continued deflation in edible oils. However, inflation in cereals pulses and spices continues to exert price pressures due to domestic weather shocks, geopolitical turmoil and global shortages (for instance rice).

There is also pressure from oil where the rise in price was initially triggered by supply cuts but has now been fanned by the Middle East conflict. Rising oil prices will put pressure on the non-food component of inflation which played a big role this year in bringing down headline inflation from its peaks. In September, we expect CPI inflation at about 5.7 per cent and then further softening beyond that as food inflation sees some more downside with new supplies entering the market and aided by government intervention.

However, the pressure from cereals and pulses could bring limited respite. For fiscal 2024, we expect inflation to average 5.5 per cent with risks now brewing on account of rising oil prices. We expect India's CPI to come at a three-month low of 5.3 per cent in September versus 6.83 per cent in August, returning to the