India needs new towns, lots of them
Real Estate Development Council has forecast that India's GDP could grow to a size of $33 trillion to $40 trillion by 2047, with the real estate sector estimated to contribute over 15%, amounting to $5.8 trillion. The report has also projected a need for 230 million residential units by that year. One might or might not accept these precise figures.
For example, even to reach $33 trillion, at the lower end of the projected range, the Indian economy would have to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 9.5% for 25 years. While this is not entirely outside the realm of the possible, it does not quite fall within the realm of the probable, either. However, there is no disputing the reality of sustained fast growth for decades, causing and caused by urbanization to accommodate workers who move from village to town, to take up jobs in the fast-growing sectors of organized services and industry.
If half of India were to be urban by 2047, the country's urban population would be close to 800 million. This would mean adding roughly 323 million people to the current urban population of about 497 million, assuming an urbanization level of 35% and a total population of 1.42 billion. Given this projection, India would require an additional urban space of more than 15,000 sq km to accommodate such growth, rivaling the United States in terms of population density.
In the existing towns of the country, the price of every additional lot of dwelling tends to be higher than that of the previous lot, for the simple reason that it is a struggle to find fresh space on which to build. Very expensive housing tends to discourage fresh investment in productive enterprises in the area. In San Francisco, whose permitting policies prevent very many
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