India’s GDP set to rebound amid policy shifts and capex boost: Mark Matthews
«I would simply say in conclusion that Donald Trump does not like a strong dollar. When he talks about the dollar, he says he would want it to go down. So, if it does keep going up, I think that he would not like that very much,» says Mark Matthews, Julius Baer.
What looks like a buy America, sell emerging market trade looks like it is reversing. In last couple of days, emerging markets and especially India, they have made a comeback. So, do you think the transition what we saw after Donald Trump got elected, that long dollar trade, is that getting over? Is that getting rusty?
Mark Matthews: Hard to say. There are so many moving parts to this incoming administration. But on a fair value purchasing power basis, the dollar is slightly overvalued. So, fundamentally, it should not go up anymore. But if this Trump administration really ignites the animal spirits of the US economy, if they remove sanctions, which they may do, which would attract more buying of treasuries, and if they introduce tariffs, all of that would conspire to the dollar going up more.
I would simply say in conclusion that Donald Trump does not like a strong dollar. When he talks about the dollar, he says he would want it to go down. So, if it does keep going up, I think that he would not like that very much.
Easier said than done. For dollar to go down, the economy has to either contract or they will have to do something different which they have not done in last couple of years. So, while Donald Trump does not like strong dollar, he loves
