India’s IT sector treads the tightrope between tariff wars and recession fears
Trump administration, triggering macro-economic uncertainties and fears of a potential recession.
“Demand uncertainties from the second half of calendar year 2024 (2HCY24) have trickled into calendar year 2025 estimated (CY2025E) budgets, implying continued weakness in financial year 2026 estimated (FY2026E),” Kotak Institutional Equities said in a report on the IT sector.
The IT services industry clocked the healthiest earnings rebound in six quarters in the October-to-December period backed by a modest uplift in business led by the key banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) vertical. This had raised hopes of a likely boost in revenue growth from the low to high single digits in 2025 at top-tier firms such as Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys and HCLTech.
However, the past few months have witnessed a return of the cautionary stance on client budgets in the US and other major regions, with the prevailing uncertainty likely to renew a pause in discretionary spending on technology.
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Experts have said this could inflate cost pressures, further delaying growth prospects for the $280-billion Indian outsourcing industry. Most firms, including top- and mid-tier ones, which scored robust deal wins previously, could see further protracted execution of the contracts.
“The Trump administration is aggressively examining spending by US corporations on foreign products and services, but this is largely restricted to the EU, UK, Canada, China and