Investors run for cover fearing Nifty could test 52-week low
₹10.9 on 27 February, a day before the war.Investors purchase put options to protect their portfolios from downside risk. It is the opposite of a call option, which is purchased during bull markets.Demand for the 22,000 put is reflected in the rise of its open interest (OI)–a gauge of money flowing into a market–to 5.33 million contracts on Friday from 1.4 million when the war began.The US and Israel strikes and the retaliation by Iran across the Gulf region show no signs of abating.
Active Brent futures have surged 42% to $103.14 a barrel a barrel since the conflict broke out, according to Bloomberg data. The Nifty has already slumped 8% since 27 February, closing at 23151.10 on Friday.If tensions do not ease soon, analysts anticipate the Nifty could test its 52-week low of 21,743.65, set on 7 April last year.
That would imply a 17.55% correction from the record high of 26,373.2 on 5 January."While a few odd bounces could be seen here and there, after the steep fall over the past two weeks, it's possible that the benchmark could test its 52-week low if the conflict is not resolved quickly," said Shrikant Chouhan, head of research at Kotak Securities.The index has already decisively breached the key technical levels of 24,604.72, 24,058, and 23,512 over the past two weeks, and the market is now closely watching the 22,734 level. If broken, that could signal a test of the 52-week low, according to Rohit Srivastava, founder of analytics firm IndiaCharts.“We seem to be in a structural downtrend, unless the news changes dramatically.
The fallout from the war is spreading to various sectors,” said Srivastava. “Last week, it was autos, and on Friday, metals started to feel the pain, with only pharma holding up.”Foreign
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