
Iran Talks, Fed Rates, Jobs Data, Inflation. This Market Rally Faces Big Tests Soon.
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.The market is betting on peace in the war with Iran while riding the relentless surge in tech stocks.Asia markets rumbled again on Thursday as Japan returned from its extended spring holidays and the Nikkei 225 roared nearly 6% higher on the opening day of trading.That takes the regional benchmark close to a 25% gain for the year, well outpacing the 11.4% advance recorded for the tech-focused Nasdaq and the 8% rise for the S&P 500.Not much has changed on the ground, or in the Strait of Hormuz, this week apart from sentiment, which seems tied to reports of a near-term deal between the U.S. and Iran that will end two months of hostilities and reopen the world’s busiest oil and energy conduit.Crude prices have slumped more than 12% over the past two sessions, with Brent futures falling below the $100 a barrel mark, on hopes of a near-term agreement that will lead to longer, more detailed peace talks between Washington and Tehran.But with stocks now more than 16% higher than their late March trough, and the first-quarter earnings season largely finished, the mood on Wall Street is expected to switch quickly.Jobs data on Friday could put the final nail in bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, while crude prices and Treasury bond yields remain elevated enough from their prewar starts to suggest inflation will continue to echo through the world’s largest economy well into the fall.The war may be nearing its end, but the cleanup in certain markets will continue.
The only question that remains is whether stocks, and in particular tech, can maintain their pristine edge.—Martin BaccardaxGet more of the journalism you love. Choose Barron’s as a preferred source in Google.Arm beat
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