Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is running out of road

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the longest serving leader in the Middle East, faces an existential choice if he wants to preserve his rule and the theocracy that has governed Iran for nearly 50 years. Khamenei has ridden out decades of immense foreign pressure on Iran’s economy and numerous public uprisings, while insisting on Iran’s right to enrich uranium and build advanced missiles.

Now, even if his security forces manage to crush the latest wave of protests, he is running out of room for political maneuver. Without compromise, the Iranian leader faces “a future with inevitable nationwide protests and the profound possibility of regime change, either because of popular unrest or through external action," said Norman Roule, a former senior U.S. intelligence official with expertise in Iran.

“It’s like a spring that gets tighter and tighter with each igniting event." The recent protests, which erupted in late December, have posed one of the most serious threats yet to the Islamic Republic’s nearly five-decade rule. While a brutal crackdown that killed thousands has cast a pall over Iran’s cities, analysts say the unrest inevitably will flare up again. Iran can only fix the economic problems underpinning the public anger if it gets relief from international sanctions.

That would require Khamenei to compromise, in particular, on Iran’s nuclear program. For decades, he has insisted that Iran has a right to develop it for civilian purposes. President Trump has demanded Iran give up nuclear enrichment entirely.