Is China the big winner of the US-Iran conflict? Seen from the prism of a 21st century cold war, plausibly
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.I can see from your coat, my friend, that you’re from the other side/ Can you tell me, please—who won the war?—Wooden Ships by Crosby, Stills, Nash and YoungIt is now relatively quiet on the West Asian front and there is little doubt that we have moved away from the brinkmanship of 7 April, a critical turning point. On that day, US President Donald Trump threatened a civilizational war against Iran, which responded by mobilizing human shields to protect critical infrastructure and suspending truce talks with the US. In that moment, the price of Brent crude oil for physical delivery briefly surged to $144 per barrel and headlines warned of ‘Armageddon.’ This marked the peak of global panic.
Yet, just two days later, the hot war was effectively over. Markets reacted swiftly: Brent crude fell to $96 by 10 April, though it reached $105 this week after US-Iran talks fell apart. Both adversaries are still blowing hot and cold, but we are unlikely to see another 7 April-like panic so long as today’s uneasy truce holds.
However, what we have witnessed is not merely the end of a potential global conflagration, but possibly the emergence of a new kind of Cold War. To understand this shift, we must ask who has actually won. Certainly not Trump.
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