TJM Institutional Services director James Iuorio analyzes Q3 earnings and the Fed's ability to control inflation and future rate decisions.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell kept the possibility of another interest rate in play during a key speech last week. Still, with inflation continuing to cool, investors are increasingly betting that the tightening campaign has come to an end.
In his closely watched speech last week, Powell downplayed recent declines in consumer prices, suggesting it's still too early to declare victory, or discuss when the central bank may begin to cut interest rates.
«It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease,» Powell said while speaking at Spelman College in Atlanta. «We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.»
FED'S FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS WEIGHING ON MIDDLE-CLASS AMERICANS
Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington, D.C., on March 22, 2023. (Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)
Despite the hawkish overtures, investors see a near 100% chance that Fed officials will hold interest rates steady at their final meeting of the year on Dec. 12-13, according to data from the CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks trading.
«Markets view those comments as inching toward the dovish camp,» said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, of Powell's latest speech. «A few weeks ago, Powell said policy is restrictive but now, he believes policy is ‘well into restrictive territory.’ I think it’s fair for markets to latch on to
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