Is the US in Recession? Depends on Whom You Ask

cryptonews.com:

D. Brian Blank, Assistant Professor of Finance, Mississippi State University._______

The US economy shrank at an annual rate 0.9% from April through June, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated on July 28, 2022. It follows a contraction in gross domestic product of 1.6% recorded in the first quarter of the year.

Some observers suggest the two quarters of contraction constitute a “technical recession” or the “unofficial start” of one, while others suggest it at least raises fears or signals it’s on the way. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell apparently thinks otherwise. On July 27, after raising interest rates 0.75 percentage point, Powell told reporters, “it’s a strong economy and nothing about it suggests that it’s close to or vulnerable to a recession.”

Confused about whether the US is in a recession or how to know when one hits? If you are, join the club.

So The Conversation US asked Brian Blank, a financial economist at Mississippi State University, to explain what’s going on in the economy and what factors determine if it is in recession.

The economy is really hard to pin down right now.

First, the question everyone is talking about now is the release of the less-than-impressive gross domestic product report, which showed a contraction after adjusting for inflation.

Some aspects of the report were positive, such as that consumption – how much people are buying – still rose a little and business fixed investment – how much companies spend on machines and factories – was flat, avoiding the drop previously forecast.

As for some of the more negative news, investment in residential housing and property declined 14%, which makes sense given how much it had been rising since the pandemic upended the housing market. In